The impacts of climate change have been on stark display this year, from severe flooding in Brazil and East Africa to droughts in Mexico and Europe and wildfires in Canada. Record-breaking heat has claimed lives around the world. These disasters are evidence that the world has not yet done nearly enough to halt the climate crisis.
But it’s not too late. Scientists say it is still possible to avoid the most devastating impacts if we change course now. While countries are making headway in key areas — electric vehicle sales continue to climb, and renewables made up 86% of new energy additions in 2023 — keeping global warming to 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F) will require more and faster action on every front. Global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions must peak immediately and decline rapidly to reach net zero by mid-century.
A pivotal opportunity to achieve this goal is approaching in 2025. That’s when the next round of national climate commitments — known as “nationally determined contributions” or NDCs — are due. These plans will detail countries’ intended climate actions through 2035. Delivering more ambitious NDCs in this cycle is a critical step toward limiting global warming and securing a safer and more livable future for everyone.
So, what exactly are NDCs? And why are they so critical to halting climate change?
1) What Are Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)?
NDCs lay out how each country will contribute to the global temperature goals outlined under the Paris Agreement. They detail countries’ plans to slash GHG emissions and help limit global warming to “well below” 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees F), with efforts to limit it to 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F). Many NDCs also include measures to build resilience to climate impacts, such as drought and sea-level rise, and provide information on the finance needed to achieve their commitments.
Under the Paris Agreement, countries agreed to submit new NDCs every five years that reflect their “highest possible ambition.” Countries are meant to strengthen their commitments in each round of NDCs based on the latest climate science.
Most countries submitted initial emissions targets prior to adopting the Paris Agreement in 2015. As of June 2024, most countries had put forth new or updated NDCs with 2030 targets — but only some of these include more ambitious emissions reductions. The next round of NDCs, with 2035 target dates, is due by early 2025.
2) Why Are NDCs Important for Fighting Climate Change?
Combating the climate crisis will require fundamental changes throughout society, from how we power homes and vehicles to how we produce food or design cities. At the same time, the world must scale up efforts to help communities — especially the most vulnerable — adapt to the changes they are already experiencing. While these actions may be driven by global goals like the Paris Agreement, they are usually planned and carried out at the local or national level.
That’s where NDCs come in.
NDCs are the main vehicle for countries to collectively address climate change. They translate international climate agreements into concrete targets and measures that countries will work toward over the next 10 years. Under the Paris Agreement, countries are required to pursue emissions reductions with the aim of meeting their NDC targets and to report on their progress.
NDCs also establish political support for specific climate actions, sending an important signal about the country’s commitment to a zero-carbon future. This can help drive the social and economic changes needed to meet national climate goals, including spurring investment from a wide variety of sources (public, private, national and international).
In addition, NDCs can contribute to achieving countries’ longer-term climate and development priorities. For example, near-term actions to reduce emissions laid out in a country’s NDC should align with any mid-century net-zero targets in its “long-term low-emissions development strategy” (LT-LEDS). NDCs can also support the implementation of countries’ National Adaptation Plans, such as by outlining actions to make key sectors, like energy and agriculture, more resilient to climate shocks.
3) Are Current NDCs Enough to Tackle Climate Change?
Countries have made meaningful strides on climate action since 2015, but their current commitments still aren’t nearly ambitious enough to match the scale of the climate crisis. Far from limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F), the actions outlined in existing NDCs are on track for a catastrophic 2.5-2.9 degrees C (4.5-5.2 degrees F) of warming by 2100.
Keeping temperature rise in check will require immediate action to transform every economic sector, including rapidly transitioning away from fossil fuels. However, fewer than half of the current NDCs contain measures explicitly related to fossil fuel consumption, and only 11 include measures to phase out or end fossil fuel use. The number of NDCs with targets for high-emitting sectors like energy, transportation and agriculture has grown — but their ambition is a mixed bag. And some countries lack sector-specific targets altogether.
Most developing countries now include NDC measures related to adaptation, referencing how they will help vulnerable communities build resilience to climate change impacts. But they often lack adequate finance and tracking mechanisms to ensure these plans come to fruition. Developed nations generally don’t include adaptation measures.
Finally, countries are not taking enough action to meet even their existing targets. Current actions will likely result in higher emissions in 2030 than the NDCs imply, revealing a significant implementation gap that countries must work to close.
4) What Should Countries Include in Their 2025 NDCs?
2025 offers a pivotal opportunity for countries to submit more ambitious NDCs that will limit warming to 1.5 degrees C and ensure a climate-resilient future for all people. But what could that look like on paper?
Experts at WRI have identified five urgent priorities for the next generation of NDCs:
- Ambitious 2030 and 2035 emissions-reduction targets in line with net-zero goals and 1.5 C. All countries should do more on this front, but high-emitting nations in particular need to demonstrate much stronger leadership on rapidly reducing emissions by 2035. This marks the halfway point between when countries submitted their first NDCs in 2020 and when many have committed to reach net-zero emissions, around 2050. That means it’s a key time to align near- and mid-term actions with long-term objectives. NDCs should also include specific targets for short-lived but highly potent greenhouse gases such as methane.
- Stronger targets in key sectors like energy and food systems. All countries should set ambitious, detailed and time-bound targets for carbon-intensive sectors — from energy and transportation to food, agriculture and land. Such targets can help send a clearer signal to governments, companies and investors than economy-wide targets alone. 2025 NDCs should commit to rapidly shifting away from fossil fuels, scaling up renewable energy, adopting zero-emissions transport, reducing food waste, and investing in low-carbon, climate-resilient farming practices, among other measures.
- More robust measures to adapt to escalating climate impacts. Climate risks like storms, wildfires and extreme heat are escalating faster than expected. The next round of NDCs should enhance actions to make communities, economies and ecosystems more resilient to these impacts. They should also do more to address loss and damage from climate change that goes beyond what communities can realistically adapt to.
- Policies to catalyze investment and spur implementation. Setting goals is just the first step; NDCs must also spell out how countries will implement their national climate plans. This will take a whole-of-government approach involving a range of ministries and subnational governments. It will also require policies to stimulate investment in climate action and align finance from various sources and actors, including the private sector.
- A stronger focus on people and communities. The shift to a zero-carbon, climate-resilient economy can create millions of jobs, reduce pollution, improve human health and generate myriad other benefits for people everywhere. But countries must carefully design their transition plans to fairly distribute benefits and avoid negative outcomes, like job losses or displacement. The next round of NDCs needs to see all countries embrace these “just transition” principles in all climate commitments.
5) What Support Do Developing Countries Need to Implement Their NDCs?
Implementing NDCs requires significant financial investments. While climate finance can stem from a variety of sources, including domestic public funds and private investors, developing countries also require support from international sources like developments banks and climate funds.
It’s well established that developing countries require far more funding than current levels to adopt green technologies and build resilience to the worsening climate crisis. Indeed, many developing country NDCs include “conditional” climate pledges, which they intend to achieve only with international support. Of the $4.5 trillion developing countries say they’ll need, cumulatively, to implement their NDCs, $1.6 trillion represents conditional pledges. And this is only a partial estimate; not all developing countries currently include finance requirements in their NDCs. In comparison to this $1.6 trillion, developed countries are currently committed to mobilizing $100 billion per year in support through 2025.
Climate negotiators will meet at the UN climate summit in Baku this November (COP29) to come up with a new global climate finance goal and begin addressing this major disconnect. The new goal must take into account the needs and priorities of developing countries, as agreed at COP21 in 2015.
In addition to more finance, developed countries have committed to providing technical assistance and technology transfer to support developing countries’ climate action.
Technical assistance involves connecting developing countries with experts and resources to help them develop and implement their NDCs. Training programs can share knowledge and build capacity to help developing countries adopt effective approaches to advance climate solutions.
Technology transfer involves developed countries sharing clean technologies and relevant know-how with developing nations to support their low-carbon transitions; for example, by helping them obtain licenses to use patented technologies.
6) How Do NDCs Relate to the Broader UN Climate Negotiations?
Although NDCs are developed at the country level, they are closely linked to international climate talks. There are mechanisms within the UN climate negotiations that are meant to both inform countries’ NDC development and transparently track their progress toward meeting the Paris Agreement’s goals.
The Global Stocktake, for example, assesses the world’s collective progress on climate change every five years and is specifically intended to guide countries’ NDC development. The first Global Stocktake in 2023 called on countries to transition away from fossil fuels and scale up renewable energy, among other things. These goals must inform the NDCs that countries submit in early 2025.
Countries also submit biennial transparency reports that analyze how they are progressing on implementing their NDCs, including efforts to reduce emissions and ramp up adaptation action. These can also communicate the level of financial, technical or technological support countries need or are providing.
In addition, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) routinely publishes NDC Synthesis Reports that combine information from all NDCs to assess progress and identify gaps in achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement.
7) Are NDCs Mandatory and Legally Binding?
Under the Paris Agreement, countries are obligated to have an NDC and to pursue domestic mitigation measures with the aim of fulfilling their commitments. While they are not legally bound to achieve their NDCs, countries have various responsibilities under the Agreement that are meant to lay the groundwork for meeting their targets.
For example, each country must submit a new or updated NDC every five years that is more ambitious than its last. The agreement clearly states that developed countries should take the lead by pursuing economy-wide emissions reductions, while developing countries should “continue enhancing” their mitigation efforts to the extent that they are able. Countries are also asked to promote transparency around implementation efforts, with developed countries required to track and report on emissions reductions.
In addition, many countries — such as the United Kingdom and Chile — have enshrined their climate commitments in nationally binding laws and regulations.
Learn more about the Paris Agreement’s legal structure here.
8) Where Can I Learn More About Countries’ Previous and Latest NDCs?
WRI has developed a variety of resources to learn more about countries’ NDCs and how to implement them. For instance:
- Climate Watch’s NDC Explorer offers a comprehensive and searchable database of each country’s NDC. The tool includes over 150 structured indicators which allow users to explore every aspect of NDCs, including how they reference adaptation, finance, mitigation, loss and damage and different sectors.
- The Next Generation NDCs resource hub offers resources and webinars to help countries develop their next NDCs, including guidance on setting sector-specific targets and how NDCs can align with long-term climate strategies.
- WRI’s Paying for Paris resource hub provides a collection of resources to help countries understand how to finance their NDCs.
Ahead of the COP29 climate summit, World Resources Institute will launch a “2025 NDC Tracker” that will allow users to track which countries have submitted new NDCs and how much they could collectively reduce emissions compared to the previous round of NDCs.
