Sweden’s Early Action to Legally Enshrine its Net-Zero Target May Bolster Against Political Shifts

Sweden was among the first countries to adopt a net-zero target as part of its climate policy framework adopted by Parliament in 2017. Sweden’s target, as further elaborated in the country’s long-term strategy submitted to the United Nations Framework on Climate Change (UNFCCC), illustrates several good practice foundational decisions: clearly defined scope and wide sectoral coverage, covering all gases and sectors excluding international aviation and maritime transport; limitations around the use of offsets and carbon removals to no more than 15% of the target; interim targets for 2020, 2030 and 2040; and development of a robust implementation plan with sector-specific detail and modeling. The 2020 implementation plan built on existing European Union and Swedish policy instruments including the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, energy and carbon taxes, the Fossil Free Sweden  government initiative which supports industry developing sector-specific decarbonization roadmaps, and others. It then identified new sector-specific actions needed to achieve net zero.

After setting this target and developing a robust implementation plan, Sweden took a step further to enshrine the net-zero target into law through Sweden’s Climate Act, which requires the government to publish a climate action plan every four years assessing progress towards interim and longer-term targets and putting new actions into place as necessary (Figure 1). The government must also include annual climate reporting in its budget bill and ensure alignment between budgets and climate policy. Moreover, the Climate Act established an independent Climate Policy Council, comprised of scientists and policy experts external to government, to evaluate the government’s progress each year.

While it is still early to determine how Sweden’s foundational decisions have impacted GHG emissions, Sweden’s emissions have been on the decline since the 1990s, largely due to progressive climate policies driving reduced use of fossil fuels and improved efficiency in the power sector, as well as transport and industry. Sweden easily met its 2020 interim target, and, notably, was on track to achieve this prior to the pandemic. However, its record GHG emissions decline from 2019 to 2020 was likely due to the pandemic, as preliminary estimates indicate that emissions increased from 2020 to 2021. In 2022, emissions once again began to decline, reaching a minimum since accounting began. More time is needed to evaluate the extent to which Sweden’s net-zero implementation plan and legislation will drive continued and deep decarbonization.

Arguably, one the most important benefits of developing a strong implementation plan and legally requiring aspects of the plan is to ensure that net-zero implementation proceeds, even if political priorities shift. Stakeholders have raised questions about whether Sweden’s new government will continue Sweden’s historic progressive action on climate change after early decisions including the removal of a dedicated Ministry for Climate and Environment and a move to lower fossil fuel prices by reducing the biofuels requirement to the EU minimum. The next Climate Action Plan —which was published by the country’s new government in December 2023 — has been criticized for deprioritizing near-term action. It will be important to monitor the long-term durability of the climate policy framework that has been built in light of these shifting priorities in the years to come.