Countries committed under the Paris Agreement to a broad goal of limiting global temperature rise to under 2°C, ideally 1.5°C. The latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) makes it clear that half a degree of warming makes a huge difference, and 1.5°C is the safer target.
So how and where do we start to get to 1.5°C, rather than 2°C or worse? The best climate models show that our most likely, least expensive option is to peak global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2020 and dramatically reduce them from that point forward.
The Mission 2020 campaign defines six milestones — in energy, transport, land use, industry, infrastructure and finance – that give governments and industries a clear roadmap to achieving 1.5°C. In a working paper published today, WRI found some progress in some areas, but we’ll need faster action in order to achieve the 2020 turning point.
Here are 12 charts that measure progress on the milestones:
Energy
Increasing the share of electricity from renewables not only reduces GHG emissions, but it also improves health outcomes and provides job opportunities. By 2020, renewables should supply at least 30 percent of all electricity, existing coal-fired power plants should be going offline, and no new coal plants should be built.
In 2017, renewable sources provided 25 percent of electricity generation and accounted for more than two-thirds of new electricity capacity. Estimates show that by 2020, electricity from renewables will be consistently cheaper than electricity from most fossil fuels, indicating a possible tipping point in the transition to low-carbon power. Reaching 30 percent by 2020 is tentatively within reach if current trends accelerate.
While the world has made progress in slowing coal’s growth, net coal capacity is still growing globally. While many developed countries have accelerated the rate of retirement for coal-fired power plants, some developing countries are still adding new ones.
Transport
Zero-emissions transport should be the preferred form of all new mobility in the world’s major cities and transport routes by 2020, as well as: electric vehicles should account for 15-20 percent of new car sales; efficiency standards for buses and trucks should be 20 percent higher; current market share for public transport should double; aviation emissions should drop by 20 percent; and we should eliminate emissions from the shipping sector. Progress has been insufficient in all areas except for shipping.
Electric vehicle sales have grown exponentially in recent years, driven by a strong policy push and technology innovations, but they still add up to only 1.4 percent of overall vehicle sales. Increasingly, buses and trucks are going electric as well, but more regions need to adopt fuel economy and emissions standards that cover these vehicles. Currently such standards only apply to 50 percent of heavy duty vehicle sales.
In Africa, 27 percent of trips occur on public transportation, but cities should expand shared transport to meet growing demand. In North America, only 7 percent of all trips happen on public transport, so cities should adopt policies that encourage people to reduce private car use.
Air travel is slowly reducing its energy intensity – 4.5 percent between 2013 and 2015 – but the industry is not on track achieve a 20 percent emissions reduction by 2020. Meanwhile, there has been considerable progress in the shipping industry, with the International Maritime Organization adopting its first strategy to reduce emissions in line with the Paris Agreement, and Maersk, world’s biggest shipping company, committing to be carbon-neutral by 2050.
Land Use
In order to preserve the many environmental, social and climate benefits that forests provide, we need to end net deforestation by 2020. At the same time, forest managers, farmers and agribusinesses should restore at least 150 million hectares of deforested or degraded land, while implementing agricultural practices that remove CO2 from the atmosphere rather than add to it.
Yet tree cover loss has increased in recent years, largely driven by commodities like timber, beef, soy and palm oil. Tropical countries and the corporations that operate in them need to radically step up forest protections.
Forest restoration efforts are hard to measure, while emissions from agriculture are still increasing – from 4.6 Gt of greenhouse gases in 2000 to 5.3 in 2016.
Industry
Heavy industries like chemicals, steel and cement are collectively responsible for around a quarter of global CO2 emissions. By 2020, they need roadmaps to halve their emissions over the next 30 years. Recent analysis found these industries could even reach zero emissions by 2050, at a cost of less than 0.5 percent of global GDP.
A number of companies have started to take action, including the 26 above that have set or committed to set science-based targets for emissions reductions. However, most companies’ commitments are not transparent enough to give a clear picture of whether heavy industry is on track to decarbonize.
Infrastructure
By 2020, governments and investors need to spend at least $300 billion annually on green infrastructure, in addition to the $6 trillion necessary just to build and maintain existing infrastructure. New buildings should be built to zero-energy standards, and at least 3 percent of existing buildings should be upgraded to those standards.
The number of zero energy buildings in cities has grown exponentially: 700 percent more since 2012 in North America alone. However, high-efficiency buildings account for less than 5 percent of construction in most markets today, and well less than 1 percent of the global building stock, according to latest estimates. We don’t have sufficient data on upgrades for existing buildings, or for the state of infrastructure investment overall.
Finance
The finance sector plays an important role in directing the investments that will make all of the other 2020 milestones possible. By 2020, financiers should be investing $1 trillion into climate action each year. Important signals toward this milestone include a 10-fold increase in philanthropic funding for climate action and in green bonds; taking climate-related financial risks fully into account; eliminating fossil fuel subsidies; canceling capital expenditures for coal, oil and gas production; and implementing carbon pricing in all major economies. We’ve seen varying levels of progress in these areas—most notably with climate finance—but not yet at a pace that puts us on a path to limit warming to 1.5°C.
Note: The estimates from CPI and the UNFCCC BA are calculated using different approaches, but neither captures the full landscape of climate finance flows.
Investment to tackle climate change is estimated to have reached $455 billion and $681 billion in 2016. These numbers only capture a portion of global financial flows due to lack of comprehensive data, so it’s possible we are on track to spend $1 trillion per year on climate action by 2020. Until financial institutions make more data publicly available, it’s hard to tell.
A Narrow Window of Opportunity for Climate Action
In each of these six sectors, tremendous opportunities to scale up and accelerate action remain untapped. Acting sooner rather than later is critically important, especially to avoid building new carbon-intensive infrastructure that would operate for decades. Now is the time to invest in necessary shifts, such as phasing out coal; moving swiftly toward renewable energy; electrifying transport, buildings and industry; and managing land sustainably. National governments can steer this shift by revising their Paris Agreement climate action plans (known as nationally determined contributions, or NDCs), and by developing long-term plans to tackle climate change.
Recent research from the Global Commission on the Economy and Climate found that bold climate action – in line with the Paris Agreement and the Mission 2020 milestones – could deliver at least $26 trillion in economic benefits through 2030. If these benefits are to stay within reach, then governments, businesses and investors must harness the opportunities to transition to a clean and sustainable economy quickly – as in, within the next year.
